Gregmal

Got a bit of ACEVU IPO

I think the Wilpons are "motivated"...but not necessarily forced sellers. They've been playing this game for nearly a decade, due to fallout from the Madoff involvement. At one point they were selling the team to Einhorn. Now its Cohen. Always a drama with them. I do think it gets done sooner than later. There is also talk the RSN is on the table, which would put the sale figured a hair below $3B. But its a sticking point apparently as the Wilpons want to keep it.

There's Tepper, and then theres everyone else. Ackman, when he's on his game, is arguably better than even Tepper. When he's off, you're probably better off setting your money on fire(possibly a tad harsh, but still reasonable assessment). Tepper's consistency is what sets him apart.

https://shoppingcenterbusiness.com/parkway-kkr-complete-10-million-renovation-of-brickell-miami-office-tower-sign-three-retail-tenants/ Retail leases being signed in Miami? No way bro.

Greg what are you referencing here? The BPY tender offer.

So the investment case here is simply "its cheap" but there is no way to harness that except through "hoping" that Mr. Market does it for you? This company, in a nutshell... Quite possibly THE WORST management Ive ever come across. Business definitely doesnt fall into the categories of "quality", or "good" let alone a "great" business Outrageous compensation, which from my experience with these situations, is where the discount to NAV typically gets closed over time. I just think theres better bucks elsewhere, even with simply less scummy people and perhaps more mediocre businesses.

Interesting, but the more interesting tweet I found was a couple below posting a link to this. https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf Guess what happened next in the 20's? But again, I can see how it is human and market nature to always assume the worst and then work backwards. As a historian myself, my application of understanding in situations like this, has always been to bet against the worst case scenario. If nothing else, you have the entire populations of politicians and bankers and experts working on your side. Similarly, how many people, even in a scenario like 2008, bet on failure and ended up losing? Getting squeezed out of shorts. Having insolvent counter parties? Seeing the Fed take actions that wiped out their bets? People like Peter Schiff who "called it" and still lost 80% that year. People who bought at the highs in 2007 and held tight in fact, did better than most of the doomsdayers. The other arm of analysis, is, how far should this drag things down. People have mentioned a liquidity crisis, but as long as the Fed is where it is, I dont see that. Further, company profitability is not being zapped to 0, so couple this with the insanely low rates, and that debt markets certainly arent "closing". Demand in fact, should increase for issues from qualified borrowers, especially if the bond guys deem an economic seize up to be temporary. Basically just a bridge loan. If you are a shitty E&P or mining company, sure, but I'd gander 95% of S&P companies would have zero problem issuing debt. So if we can eliminate liquidity induced plummet, then we have what? Just a recession to worry about. Is it possible we see Great Depression type stuff. I suppose, but probably not. Quantify what a temporary recession should do to the broader market... maybe comparable to something in the 70's or early 90s... but, most of those were greatly enhanced by energy/oil related issues and inflation, neither of which are really on the horizon here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets Which one prior haven't we recovered from? Most were really just temporary shocks, similar to this, and exacerbated by program trading. Further, at least here, plenty of investors prior to February, were cautious or paring down their exposure because of "valuation" concerns... in November, December, January, etc. We can call the recent rise a "blow off top", but I think thats silly considering that a 10% rise over a half year stretch isn't really a blow off top, nor did it take us anywhere that extreme compared to market levels back in 2018 or 2019. From late 2017 S&P ~2650. So from that point to today that "market" has blown off a whopping 5% annually? An 8% return would take us back to roughly were we were in January. Just because people have been crying about valuation for a long time doesnt mean it was true. Generally speaking, the "broader markets" are relatively efficient. I myself have had plenty of stocks where Ive pounded the table and said the valuation didn't make sense, but was ultimately just WRONG. Same can be said here. The biggest issue I see right now is that the smart guys cant really calculate/model the impacts here so they're just throwing everything away. Still yet, I haven't really seen any of the fear driven people say where exactly the market should crash to or what levels it should now trade at. In fact, dare I say the value guys now just sound like momentum investors because "the trend is down". Again indicative of the above, and that fear is blinding. Yea totally revisionist! But yea, as long as he keeps shifting gears...it's all good. Just go check all those early June posts attacking anyone who dared suggest anything different than what he was selling(such as the observation that the death rate had declined) on the "Death rate lagging 2 weeks"....After all, thats why he doesnt waste his time responding...LOL, every time! So yea, must be the bottle! Not that I have a Europe/Asia focused business as many here know. Hard to keep up with one of the few people here who has been caught red handed lying and caught red handed retroactively editing the content of his posts because he's always worried about "looking" right on an internet message board. Whatever....Trump's liberal alter ego, as Ive said before. Anyway....to muscleman's post RE:NYC antibodies, I have a contact who is a director at one of the mid sized Pharma companies(IE 10B+ in size). I had a lunch meeting with him about two weeks ago and something similar was brought up. That the internal research seemed to indicate this had largely "done its damage" in NY/NJ area, and was following the same path in the southern states. That there'd be flare ups, but that the worst was behind us in these areas. And that they concluded working towards a vaccine wasn't worthwhile(from an economic perspective), partially because of this. And that those "vaccine first movers" where largely subsidized by huge gobs of government money and incentives, as the "race for a vaccine" is very much a political trophy and "national bragging" right. Its certainly a shame some of these things have to intersect, but thats the world we live in.

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? +1

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/politics/fauci-covid-2021-real-normality-axe-files/index.html?ftag=YHF4eb9d17 Not mentioned. Not surprisingly.

Sooooo, a few things. Isn't it ironic, hypocritical, and well, typical that the same folks talking about how "if Trump had said this, or endorsed that"; "oh he should've endorsed masks sooner because its the only vaccine we have"; things would have been different... square in the face of getting called out for "yea, its not like you people would listen anyway"...are now advocating for "I won't get the vaccine even if it comes out because of Trump"? Anyway. Its pretty awesome seeing someone who berated many different quality COBF members back in June for suggesting the death rate was now lower, disappear again, and then all of a sudden come back and start waiving hands, and shift gears. Basically pivoting to "death rate doesnt matter" and then moving on to other narrative filling talking points. Specifically I remember this chump belittling jamesmadison and a few others...now? Oh its not important anyway...LOL. Of course, she doesnt respond to certain people, but always seems to respond indirectly anyway.... just wait. And by the way, any fool could have foreseen stimulus(check the posts as far back as February). Definitely didnt need to be a "maybe" doctor with an engineering background to see it coming. But hey, miss it entirely and then bitch about it. Such is life!

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

With respect to economic activity, and return to normal...I think it will be very binary. Once you have a vaccine(s), tourism will get the green light, airlines will see pickup, offices will start filling back up, movie theaters open, people will run back to bars/clubs at full capacity(not that they haven't tried to already). But yes, there will definitely be gaps and probably a good number of people who refuse...but the important components, from an investment perspective, get green lighted. The government will step away. As Ive brought up a number of times, the market fears the government shutdowns, not really the virus. There's a reason you see even shitty old retail/restaurant assets getting flipped at 5-7 cap rates in Florida and Texas, whereas the same one in NYC have no market.

Why? ... ... You can only try to hide from reality for so long... Honestly, to me a pretty mind boggling thought exchange here on CoBF. [i want data!, m0re & m00re data! - It doesn't in that context matter what I've already got!] It's all about reading the script [already written! - so far!] on the Wall! [to move on, to "take it from here", to adopt, adapt & improve!] I think when you remove narratives, which are quite popular, there is indeed writing on the wall. Look at the timeline of Fauci's statements on vaccine. Look at the data coming out from companies/countries running that race. I think we almost certainly have a vaccine, and its most likely widely available late '20/early '21. From day 1, governments all over, especially here, have been wildly unwilling to shoot straight about whats really happening with regard to the "behind the scenes" stuff. At this point I would think the plan is to temper expectation, and then surprise to the upside, just in time for the election. This same pattern has played out over and over with this administration, 100% willing to manipulate data to their benefit. Most recently with all the China trade nonsense. I think the states kind of have a clue too, with some taking different approaches than others. Some...let things stay as is, who cares, vaccine will arrive soon....and others, like NY/NJ, etc...buy time/delay. The other side, if you dont think this its accurate is pretty darn grim indeed. Things as simple as phase 2/3 stuff, restaurants with the outdoor seating.... how do you do that in January at 20 degree temps? You'd literally have to shut everything for 6 months....or completely open it all back up. Very binary IMO.

Oh you have no idea about small but often. For some of the "corona will pass" trades, I've got a 6 month(from March) expected time frame for the shenanigans and market gyrations to play out. And subsequently a similar purchase horizon until full positions are accumulated, with the max size for any one position being about 7.5%. Lots and lots of buying! Only one exception was SPG and and MSGN. Both(SPG at $50 and MSGN at $13) I figured if $50/$13 aint good, neither will be anything below that. But a bunch of others... a million purchases.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone". An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams...

Yup. Also had a series of(yes, its me, but it wasn't at all political) investment posts vanish the other morning as did I see several other posters posts disappear. I think it was Tuesday between 1am-3am EST...quite weird.

Cool, thanks for the explanation. Like you, I buy small, often. I forget who, it may have even been Cramer or one of the CNBC talking heads who said rule of thumb should be wait 3 days from earnings to make a move, but I personally fluctuate between "the fundamentals" mattering, in which case you're being counter productive getting too crazy about entry/exits, and the "trading game" in which case its very important. Of late, the later has been a popular theme with market participants, and I've found myself being influenced a tad by the mentality, at least in terms of my accumulation approach in some instances. Not sure whether thats good, bad, or ultimately meaningless.

Are you just being sarcastic? Rarely does the fundamental investment case go from investable to not a great idea in 24 hours or with a few buck s/t move. Or are you just looking for a quick flip here? Bought a small bit this morning, not super exciting, but basically at mid March levels now.

Got filled end of day on a GTC order for some PCYO at 8.7

I still think this is a pretty sure 0, but from a recent call...on AMC opening Craig Kucera Hi. Good morning, guys. I'm curious to hear about your discussions with your movie theater tenants. I know AMC pushed back opening up another couple of weeks this morning. I think, Cinemark is expecting a phase reopening, but just, sort of, curious what you're hearing from them? John Albright Yeah. I would say that they weren't expecting to open up this month or next month, back when we negotiated our deals. I think, where the rubber meets the road is if they're not starting to open up in October, that would be, you know, if things aren't looking great for October then you could be having another discussion with them. But they didn't have any grand plans for late summer. They felt -- lease there, the way they are operating, that things are going to be shutdown until fall.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3594886-firstenergy-ceo-asserts-no-wrongdoing-in-pushing-for-nuke-subsidies So here's "their" side to the situation, from an otherwise normal earnings call. Its starting to get pretty clear that this is more bark than bite. Not a terribly interesting company to me otherwise, but these short term dislocations are always interesting and (usually) profitable..

NZ did very well. One overarching theme is that islands ( NZ, Australia ( technically a continent but still surrounded by water), Iceland, Japan , South Korea ( norther border is impenetrable) can do better because they have easier ways to control access. The exception are the turds from the UK of course. I don't think most of the countries that are having trouble are having trouble because infected people are coming over the borders... I cant think of any other way a virus that started in China goes global...can you?

I posted in another thread some time ago but think its relevant here too.. but imagine if WEB invested based on narratives or where consensus about the stock price a week or quarter down the road would be? WEB: Hey Charlie, what do you think about Amex here? Charlie: Nah bro, its got problems. Fraud. probably going lower WEB: Good point, Ill pass WEB: Charlie, the S&L crisis seems to be taking even the best banks with it, but doesnt Wells look great here? Charlie: Nah bro, banks are in trouble. You'll probably lose money on it this year... WEB: Very true, pass Goldman banker: Hey Warren, we need capital, name your terms. Whatever you want WEB: No thanks. Scary times ahead of us. Did you see what happened to Lehman and Bear?

+1. Ive had similar thoughts with various names over the years. People who look promising, only to slowly let the money and power get to them. You'd think the shareholder base is capable of standing up, but either through manipulating the voting structure, or simply gaming the proxy firms like ISS, who essentially determine how most of the institutional shareholder base will vote...well you get situations like this.

Added a few more BRK. If the current tech reversal trend continues(big week with GOOG and FB ER coming up; two of the most susceptible techies), I think this is a good place to be. Or maybe its just a 1-2 days market head fake to screw with people who like value stocks....probably. EDIT: just grabbed some INTC a bit below $50 as well.