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Gregmal

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Everything posted by Gregmal

  1. You can play the games if you do it intelligently. I am surprised MLB didnt use the bubble. I have no doubt the NBA and NHL will finish the season. Baseball is questionable, but the one you are very likely to see get cancelled is the NFL. Not only no bubble, but the amount of contact should make it nearly impossible. Let alone the fact that I cant really think of another league with more players who display regularly that they have poor judgment and no self control.
  2. The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience. Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people. A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control? Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc...
  3. Exhibit A https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?
  4. Well, let me ask you then, you had the chance to vote for Romney in 2012, and actually had he won, Trump would never have gotten into office. Did you? I doubt it. If you did, then at least you are consistent. If you didnt, the "I wouldn't mind Romney" stuff is just half measure fluff to veil partisanship. As fake as all the "he was a great person" stuff you see when a person who lived an otherwise unsavory life passes away tragically. Nobody can say, "yea he was a scumbag"(even if it's true), the same way most cant say "I will always vote down ballot"(even if its true). Otherwise, yea, Trump does a lot of boneheaded stuff and caters to headlines and "his base" more than act Presidential. But this isn't news and as I ve consistently said, I think if you guys really believe a lot of what you write, you are sadly mistaken because by and large, Trump, as well as pretty much every politician Ive ever come across, gets a whole lot more credit(both good and bad) than they really deserve. They are largely hollow, leech like figureheads. I dont think Trump is a leech, he has enough money. He's just an attention whore and an egomaniac. But most politicians arent rich and only become so by being a leech.
  5. Does this have retard potential? https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/soc-telemed-to-merge-with-healthcare-merger-corp-301102426.html Ive noticed "some" favorable setups in the "potential retards". You'd again have to think some of the SPAC's present favorable setups with the NAV backstop and leverage in warrants. You also have to bring yourself to buying things that arent typically the preferred cup of tea. Certainly not for everyone. And certainly have to be willing to gamble and therefor allocate responsibly. I'd highlight the obvious risks, especially known to SPACs...such as, from the release... TJ Carella, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, said, "We are excited to join forces with the HCMC team and to continue our partnership with SOC in delivering value to its many customers." Amr Kronfol, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, added, "We are very grateful to Paul for his leadership of SOC and believe that Steve and John are well positioned to drive the company forward in this next phase of its growth."
  6. Except for that fact that, many people, including me, have acknowledged Trump's actions have been poor in many cases. What you're leaving out is your glaring neglect of any other facet or shared "blame", because it doesnt fit the agenda. Somehow, in an effort to highlight how much society has degraded in terms of its reliance on "credible sources", we've gone from "Wikipedia isn't a great source" to now Twitter being the primary go to for many.... I'm fine being political, Im fine being "apolitical". Same cant be said for everyone, most of them will likely disappear for good when the new site launches in September. You cant possibly claim to not have an agenda, when 90% of what gets posted has the same undertone to it. You also cant sit here and seriously make the case "government should have encouraged masks earlier, its the only vaccine we have", and then out of the other side of the mouth make the claim "I won't get a vaccine because of the government". Its also not incredibly hard to see that many people, in many states, won't listen to the government, whether federal, state, or local, regardless. This has held true in every state from Texas and Florida, to NY and NJ. You guys who want to harp on about the Federal government, continue to selectively highlight narrative fitting talking points, and ignore others. For instance, please explain to me, how the federal government is in anyway responsible for what happened at the Chainsmokers concert in the Hamptons? Or young people flocking to beaches and bars in Florida? So no its not strange that "all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical"....that aint me. Pick your game and I'll play. Just please at least have the credibility to admit you are playing the game!
  7. Well, we had an inflection point with this thread around late February. Efforts were made at first to remain objective, but then once it became clear Sanjeev had no interest in keeping this non-political, it became fair game to shoot back at all the liberal propagandists. Off the rails it went, indeed. Lets not pretend its one sided though. HCQ has become a battleground issue...no idea why. NY deaths were Trumps fault. Florida and Texas were out of hospital capacity "any day now", almost 2 months ago... along with their death rates supposedly going to match NY/NJ's "in two weeks", for months now. Most sensible people know most of the narratives on both sides are bullshit, but if thats the game thats going to be played out here, so be it.
  8. Bought some GLDD. May write it up later. Very interesting company. Turn around story, high barriers to entry, lots of free call options on various businesses/developments, including global warming.
  9. Yeah, every time we have a crisis, everyone says "plummet" "spirals out of control" "slammed". In the Queens residential rental market. We got down to about 50% rent collection in April from the chatters that I had with people. Many of the tenants are restaurant employees. But by July, they are getting close to 80-100% rent collection. Obviously, smaller # of units equals big fluctuations. But if you talk to enough people, the overall numbers tend to be meaningful. The things that worries me is the crime. Simply put, if a cute 22 year college grad is afraid to move to NYC because she feels (doesn't matter if it's true or not) unsafe, then we have a problem. The key is the perception not the actual stats. If that cute 22 year old don't want to move to NYC, then the companies have no reason to set up shop there. That's a real spiral. This is why I worry about DeBlasio. The only time that I have really seen the US Housing Market get SLAMMED was during 08/09. It really got slammed. Simply put, people could not afford the mortgage. It was ludicrous. If you have 20-30% equity in your RE and you can service the debt, you will do everything you can to hold onto it and keep chugging on. In RE, the transactions happen because either you can no longer pay your mortgage or your bank force you to sell. No one sells RE in the private market by saying "hmm, this looks a little rich, let me sell and re-deploy into some other liquid asset class. I don't mind paying cap gains and depreciation recapture as well." Depreciation Recapture is a bitch. As I have gotten older, I have come to appreciate how much inertia there is once you have kids and wife. Man, I don't make the most rational decision anymore on a purely financial basis. Rule number one, keep the Mrs happy. Rule number two, listen to the Mrs. Rule number three, pay attention to the future needs of your kids. Rule number four, don't forget these 3 rules and verbally communicate to the Mrs. that those are your top priorities. Rule number five, now you can think about what you want. Branching off your point about crime, I have a life long friend who was always a bit of a suburb/country guy. Carpenter by trade. Vowed his ambition was to buy a decent plot with a small house and a huge garage with a loft in a rural part of NJ/PA. Then he met his wife, who was a typical suburb girl. Needed to go get the "live in NYC/Hoboken" right of passage out of her system, and he got dragged along. Both worked in NYC so at least it was convenient. They have a 1 year old as well. Turns out that the BBQ shooting that killed the infant in Brooklyn was on their street. They went to their landlord the following week, negotiated a breaking of their lease, and are moving back to the burbs. I share your concerns about the effect of crime, although I have for awhile, well before this outbreak. On the leasing/collections side, at least in terms of CRE, I've gotten significantly more comfortable lately as the results have rolled in and figures solidified a bit. The doomsday situation IMO was current leases being broken and huge numbers of insolvencies or properties flooding the market. This is clearly not happening. As long as we continue to see CRE tenants paying their rent, the best players, with strong balance sheets and good properties, will be quite OK.
  10. More generally, I think it is a mistake(mentally) how everyone always assumes, everything needs to "plummet", "get slammed", "crash", etc. There are so many of variable outcomes in between the goal posts of the situations entirety, thats ridding yourself of that knee jerk panic reaction is usually helpful. What Ive seen in the markets I follow(blue, high tax, NJ/NY) is the same as has been occurring for awhile. Insatiable demand for sub $500k SF, above that price point it gets a little trickier, although there has been a bit of uptick in demand there as well.
  11. LEAP is just a longer dated option. Can be in or out of the money.
  12. Yet....we continuously see some folks quoting mouthpieces on Twitter.....who dont even have the credentials of... you know, MD. Further, this lady has a crazy theory, whatever. People are fine to judge her on that. Same with Kyrie Irving thinking the Earth is flat. But its downright stupid to say that "everything else they say is invalid" because of it. Its just a stupid tactic liberals use to discredit people. I can learn about medical subjects from a doctor with outlandish or otherwise crazy views; I can learn about basketball from Kyrie....tolerance of opposing viewpoints/beliefs for the win! Except rb, who must really be genuinely concerned about all those rabid Trump sheep dying from coronavirus HCQ....
  13. https://nypost.com/2020/07/30/nycs-bryant-park-hotel-is-being-converted-to-office-space/ You dont say!
  14. That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff. These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves. Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH! And there is a process. You need a prescription. But HCQ is still not a banned substance. So there's that.
  15. So if it doesnt work, and you dont see a valid argument for it, why continue to get so worked up over it? No one is forcing it down your throat...Conversely, if someone else seems to think it has a benefit, they should be able to do as they wish. Same way some weirdos have dream catchers or other trinkets they ascribe some sort of value to. Are you really this intolerant of everyone else's opinions and beliefs? Stop "pretending" to be concerned about the "health" of people you clearly possess such disdain for. We all know you guys love blabbering on about it simply because you feel every time you do, that you're "really showing Donald!".... let it go.
  16. It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.
  17. To each their own. Different people have different priorities. I remember relating tremendously to the section of the HBO doc on WEB when his wife was telling the story about bringing up the pot when she was sick. Sometimes, when you are a deep dive person, the lights are on, but mentally you're just somewhere else. But personally I'll never understand not doing everything you can to be there for your kids. After a certain point, money becomes meaningless. Its hard not to judge people who spend their whole lives rabidly in pursuit of it to the cost of many of the "finer" things in life. I would never trade the opportunity to experience certain things on my own terms for any amount of money. From time to time I get offers to go work for people in the city or at an office. While I'm always flattered, the response is always the same. "Can I pickup my son from Pre K at noon? Can I take my daughter to swim lessons at 2pm on Thursday? Your answer is my answer. Thanks though." Of course, none of this means there isn't a boatload to learn from folks who do it differently. If anything, having the roadmap of people like Buffett, who dedicate their lives to certain causes(regardless of our opinions on their nobleness) make it somewhat easier for all those that follow.
  18. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200729005828/en/Empire-State-Realty-Trust-Announces-Quarter-2020 Second Quarter and Recent Highlights Net loss attributable to the Company was $0.07 per fully diluted share. After a $0.03 per share reserve against tenant receivables and non-cash reduction in straight line rent balances, Core Funds From Operations (“Core FFO”) was $0.14 per fully diluted share. Same Store Property Cash NOI excluding lease termination fees was up 18.0% from the second quarter 2019 primarily driven by lower property operating expenses, partially offset by a reserve against tenant receivables. When COVID-related rent deferrals are excluded, Same Store Property Cash NOI increased 9.9% from the second quarter 2019. Strong liquidity position with $1.4 billion of total liquidity as of June 30, 2020, which consists of $873 million of cash plus an additional $550 million available under its revolving credit facility. The Company repurchased $52 million of its common stock shares at a weighted average price of $7.99 per share in the second quarter, and year-to-date through July 28, 2020, the Company repurchased $119 million of common stock at a weighted average share price of $8.67. For the total portfolio in the second quarter, we signed 19 new, renewal, and expansion leases, representing 113,431 rentable square feet at an average starting rental rate of $64.43 per rentable square foot. Collected 84% of second quarter 2020 total billings with 86% for office tenants and 75% for retail tenants. Through July 24, 2020, collected 90% of July total billings, with 93% for office tenants and 75% for retail tenants. The Empire State Building Observatory remained closed during the entire second quarter and reopened on July 20, 2020. Declared a dividend of $0.105 per share. Announced the appointment of Christina Chiu to EVP and CFO, Aaron D. Ratner to SVP and CIO, and the departure of John B. Kessler. On July 13, 2020, the Company announced the appointment of R. Paige Hood to its Board of Directors, effective August 1, 2020, and the departure of William H. Berkman, effective July 31, 2020. Reduced expected full year G&A by approximately 12% from the previously disclosed 2020 G&A run rate of $68 million to $60 million, excluding one-time severance charges. Reduced property operating expenses by $10 million in the second quarter 2020 from the prior year period and expect further to reduce expenses by $12 million in the second half of 2020. Reduced required capital expenditures planned for 2020. Reduced annual base salary for Anthony E. Malkin, the Company’s Chairman, President and CEO, and Thomas P. Durels, EVP Real Estate, by 33% and 25%, respectively, effective August 1 through the remainder of 2020. This is in addition to Mr. Malkin’s base salary reduction to $1.00 for the second quarter of 2020. Reduced 2021 NEO annual equity compensation by $3.9 million, comprised of a $2.7 million reduction for Mr. Malkin and $1.2 million reduction for Mr. Durels.
  19. Gregmal, Why don't you just tell it like it is. You bought it for the potential "Tech Lock and Pop" effect. LOL. Offering me a tech SPAQ IPO right now is like offering Johnny Depp some.... well, you know what Im getting at. Have another lined up for Friday.
  20. Finally got filled on a handful of MSGE $100 Feb calls.
  21. I own a bit of LMT, but I've also always really liked Elbit Systems. A bit smaller and more specialized, but very well managed company.
  22. Totally agree that the nerds have ruined much of sports, but especially baseball. Look at complete games from 50 years ago, or even 30, and look now. Yet, somehow, pitchers, despite an obsession with pitch count, continue to get injured at fairly high rates. No small ball anymore. The shifts are ridiculous. I love the sport, but its gotten bad. Its comparable to hockey, like was mentioned with the dead puck era, but more relevantly I think, the butterfly. Look at how exciting goalies where pre 2000's. Grant Fuhr and Dominick Hasek. Now they're all robots that sit on their knees and swivel. No athleticism. Boring.
  23. Exactly. The same exact arguments about the Fed and government propping up the market, and things being ahead of themselves, was made by some, almost every week, from 2010-2013. Then it seemed they shut up. Now it seems theyre back. What you described above, happened. And anyone comparing S&P February to S&P today is missing quite a bit. Mainly, the dislocation with tech has gotten much larger, and second, probably most importantly, we have some significant clarity on where rates will be for the forteseeable future. That is always important. Go pull up the Buffett quotes about where stocks should be if rates are long term low.... The whole "S&P shouldn't be here" is just lazy and half assed.
  24. In brief, I thinks its focus is in the right place(IT infrastructure), COVID may create M&A opportunities globally which is something they highlighted in the prospectus, and most importantly, you cant really lose money if you can get the IPO allocation.
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