Gregmal

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

He has long talked about SNS being non recourse. The termite chews through the wood and then leaves the hollowed out mess for someone else.

I went into my local Wells several years back to open a tenant savings account. It was 1:30. I waited 5 minutes for the lady at the front desk, who was on the phone. I told her what I needed to do. She said Jenny could help me with that. She called over to Jenny, who informed her that she was going on her lunch break in 5 minutes, and couldn't do it. I asked if there was anyone else who could handle this. I was told Joe could, but he was currently on his lunch break. The lady asked me to come back at 3... I went to Chase and got things done in 10 minutes.

Why aren't you making a distinction between NBA and MLB teams? I think all sports teams are good "relative" feelers. You are right that there is a distinction, the more granular you want to get. But if the bottom teams in any sport are selling at record prices, I think thats a reasonable proxy for all of them as a whole. If for instance the Mets sell for $1.5B, I would definitely be concerned about the Knicks and Rangers, despite it being a baseball sale and a team that hemorrhages money. Good article on the stadium too, thanks.

Beat me to it. Was going to say, definitely not a doomsday quarter.... During the second quarter of 2020, the Company signed 35 office leases in its Manhattan portfolio totaling 280,002 square feet. Twenty-nine leases comprising 226,308 square feet, representing office leases on space that had been occupied within the prior twelve months, are considered replacement leases on which mark-to-market is calculated. Those replacement leases had average starting rents of $73.05 per rentable square foot, representing a 0.8% decrease over the previous fully escalated rents on the same office spaces. The average lease term on the Manhattan office leases signed in the second quarter was 4.3 years and average tenant concessions were 4.5 months of free rent with a tenant improvement allowance of $8.42 per rentable square foot. .... Significant leases that were signed in the second quarter included: Renewal with HQ Global Workplaces LLC for 27,825 square feet at 100 Park Avenue, for 5.0 years; Expansion with Oak Hill Advisors for 23,848 square feet at One Vanderbilt Avenue, for 16.3 years; Renewal with Sentry Center 810 Seventh LLC for 23,362 square feet at 810 Seventh Avenue, for 5.0 years; and New lease with InTandem Capital Partners and Sagewind Capital LLC for 10,165 square feet at One Vanderbilt Avenue, for 7.4 years.

Gotta hand it to Musk, turning in a profitable quarter despite all the narratives floating around covid and auto. Oh, and in light of the fact that the "real" auto companies lost boatloads of money...

Yup, governments dont kill businesses. The fines are manageable. Sometimes even tax deductible! I looked briefly, lept a little bit, and will also being doing more work here as on the surface this seems like a textbook case of headline overreaction on a pretty blue chip-ish company/business.

London Whale type one off, or doughnut? No position as of now, but starting to get interesting. EDIT bought a swing position at $25.7 moments ago.

I posted here earlier but seems it disappeared(nothing political or bad, same with a couple other posts from same period this morning) Anyway, in summary... Shorting isn't for everyone. I was taught that if you cant manage a position going against you 5-10x while still being able to add to it, dont short. These things, especially p&d's do this kind of stuff(I currently am aware of 3 promotions here). Options are almost always severely mis priced when things are dormant. IE The stocks dont move 5%, they either go ballistic to the upside or just grind lower towards their eventual fair value of 0. So a month or two ago you could buy $5 calls for 20c going out to September. But once they move, the options because total sucker bets. You've had 50c on the $6's going out a week or two yesterday, and puts at $5 going out a few months cost $1.5.... But, as for it going to $10 or whatever, I mean why wouldn't that just be a bonus? If it goes against you and you can add to it, all the better. Like I mentioned, last go around with this, I sat on an $8 starter and shorted up to $16, took maybe a year of momo to ride out, eventually went down 95%...I still haven't covered. The only way you lose with these is if you get stopped out*, or cant handle the volatility**. *Even if you get squeezed you can always exercise your options or box out your type 5 account with a long in a type 2, just to weather the storm. **Again, this is largely just volatility, if you pay attention to the fundamentals, that stuff shouldn't be so concerning, I mean why short a p&d if you end up getting shaken out during the p... It doesnt take much work to see what kind of people are driving this....exhbit 1 of MANY https://stocktwits.com/Vaxy/message/229756033 Putting into perspective these contracts, the NFL one is for $75M.... assuming a stupid high 50% margin(not even close, look at LH and other peers for comps), thats less than 2 months cash burn... Shorting is tough, and there's no such thing as easy money(except SPAC IPO), but frauds and p&d, along with bankrupt to be companies are amongst the most reliable. You just have to be able to stomach the volatility, which again, if you're investing, and focused on the fundamentals, is a bit easier to handle.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29511700/glen-taylor-exploring-wolves-sale-kevin-garnett-interested One of the least valuable teams in the NBA going up for sale. Pre Covid Forbes sticker $1.375B. Lets see what happens, but waiting for another Covid narrative to get blown out of the water....sports teams are less valuable? Dont think so.

Im more interested in who is Stone Cold, The Rock, Undertaker, and Mankind?

And usually follows some sort of major "reset" type event.

GRBK

I wonder what Buffett thought about narratives when picking off banks during the GFC or previously, scooping up WFC during the S&L crisis. I believe Berkowitz made his name going big on the "death of banks" in the early 90s as well. Narratives are awesome. People will stop banking before they decide to spent the rest of their lives on their couches, not going to work, not shopping, not traveling, etc. We will see softness in pricing and rents for a bit, thats called a cycle....so what? I mean shit, look at the life cycle of ALX if you need evidence of the durability of well located RE.

Yea Marten is much more focused and if anything, a potential tuck in acquisition for an ODFL type. They've spent years shifting away from long haul and just in general, have the whole owner operator thing going on, which explains the consistency of their results over the years and aligns interests in a business that can definitely be challenging.

Value stocks absolutely work WITH PROPER CAPITAL ALLOCATION! It is virtually impossible for a solid company trading at 5x or whatever to underperform over the long haul if they are repurchasing shares, paying dividends, and retiring(or using wisely) debt. This said, theres a difference between a traditional value stock and a shitty company with bad management that is optimally "cheap"(cough GM).

Yea, I definitely agree. The contracts across the board are impressive. But you'd also think they are competitively bid, and margins must be thin. These guys arent doing anything proprietary, just providing a commodity service. Nonetheless numbers should be huge, optically at least. This will be a tailwind, but I think more importantly it will be great promo material for these guys. I took the original OPK to the moon ride in 2014 or so. Started shorting in 8s and finished around 16. Quite the pain trade but no doubt you have two things working for you when you short a company like this...time is on your side, and management is always working very hard for you! I would just caution now that since you clearly have the momo and RH crowd behind this, dont underestimate the games these guys know how to play. The press releases come fast and furious; if there is one thing these guys know how to do it is milk the capital markets and they have several 5th tier retail brokerage shops, like LT doing their bidding. Borrow fee is still very low, so keep an eye on that. Once it broke $3s I bought some Sept $4 and $5 calls to hedge out a bit. To put into perspective what you're dealing with here, ask yourself...what kind of company goes on "Mad Money", a show targeting retail investors, to make major announcements? Very predatory. The downside longer term from a short perspective is that if they effectively drop a secondary here, Thats potentially enough funding for 2 more years...which puts the bankruptcy out of reach as a shorter term trade.

I think such generalities are nonsensical. Value investing is simply paying less than you get. That does NOT mean buying a terrible business at an 6x multiple automatically leads to outperformance. It also does NOT mean that buying a great business at a 200x multiple automatically leads to outperformance. Either one could be too cheap, too expensive or about fairly valued. Unfortunately you simply have to think about what you are buying, do due diligence, model the company in question, think about the actors involved, make assumptions, try to falsify those assumptions and think about why the market valuation could be wrong. That's called: work. Nobody likes it. If "imagination" was a substitute for that I'd be a billionaire but I don't think it is. If you presume in advance that buying a balance sheet play, or a low multiple play, does not work because 'the market is too smart for that' yet you assume that you can outperform by buying growth stocks because 'the market does not have my imagination' I think you are giving the market not enough credit and you are also limiting your own options. +10 Flexibility with respect to ones mindset and ever changing data is the all important attribute. Imagination by itself can be both awfully good and awfully bad. I see plenty of people on social media "imagining" the next EV powerhouse or COVID vaccine candidate and "imagining" their calls going up 100x by Friday. Imagine that?

I think the underperformance is warranted. There's been little good news and still plenty of shoes to drop. VNO shoes to drop. 1) Facebook / Farley. 2) Dividend cut 3) continued retail deterioration etc. I'm not worried because I think I own companies with great balance sheets that will survive a multi-year tough period, but I wouldn't be surprised if they trade down further or languish for a long time. You crazy bastard! You sound like you're investing. Better get with it and buy some NKLA or TSLA. Better off predicting where the stock will be in the next 16 hours. Worst case next 3-4 weeks! Sucker!

Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case.

Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales.

Trimmed some DD, FIZZ, CRSP. Sold out of ANGI(Cheers to a certain board member on that one, thanks!) Added to shorts in PINE, OPK, AMRN

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car. FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties. I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that: Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule. “It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said. Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"??? EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump Teens and even some percentage of adults are always likely to make some reckless choices. No doubt. Some percent of teens are likely to take drugs, even if both parents are well meaning and do all the right things. But now imagine, if the parents say, drugs are no big deal, they might be fun to use once in a while, etc. I would think those teens are much more likely to take drugs. Same applies here. Trump has influence on a big enough segment of the population that his example would be emulated. Even if say 5% or 10% of population end up wearing masks because of him it would be helpful. So no, I disagree with your backhanded support to Trump that none of that would make any impact. Vinod Thats totally fine. Theres been more than enough presented, to get to where one needs, without it being a support/not support Trump issue. You have people from different age groups, demographics, income levels, and political affiliations, skirting social distancing rules and disregarding masks. Some love Trump, some hate him, most probably dont care either way. You have cases from 1918 where you had the same type of "anti mask" behavior, but if Anderson Cooper tells you a potato is a T Rex, you are more than free to blame Trump for bringing back the dinosaurs....

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car. FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties. I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that: Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule. “It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said. Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"??? EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump

Ardent Trump supporter Dwight Howard on marks..."pointless"....selfish fucking Republican!