Gregmal

How right you are! 10,000 or so (I just eyeballed it) people died from COVID in Az & Tx over the past few weeks. Morgue capacity is probably more necessary at this point. Indeed. Worse than NY for all them dumb red states didnt exactly play out. In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY. The relevant question right now for NY/NJ and those states....if you won't allow businesses to open in counties seeing less than 100 cases PER WEEK, well, when will they be able to open? And if you are forcing them shut(yea imagine that? A filthy rich Goldman banker putting mom and pop shops out of biz in order to bolster his political ambitions?) why do you continue to charge them property taxes? And at the "corporate rate" at that? Disgusting.

Governor jackass in NJ continues his daily pressers. Its become clear that any success he had handling this originally, has been totally overshadowed by the selfish, "look at me" parade he continues to embark on. Yea, keep talking about how low the rates are and how great it is going, while suffocating your residents and still refusing to let businesses open. Keep sending in the police to arrest gym owners... and having state trooper drive-by's every half hour to harass every bar and restaurant....What a clown show. Says Murphy.... “Believe me, I want to get to gyms, I want to get to indoor dining, I want to get to theaters,” Murphy said. “But we can’t do it if we think we’re gonna have a likelihood of killing people.” Oh dont worry Goldman banker turned politician....you and Cuomo already set records for killing people.... Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

I would also agree with Foreign Tuffett and Spek. The hope and dreams(along with all of the assets) of SHLD, just got transferred to SRG. #ImmortalThesis

As for the Gates theories, I dont buy it either. Bill is one of MANY, MANY resources available to Berkshire. Gates pitched Buffett hard on buying MSFT a long time ago; Warren didnt get it, and didnt do anything. Look at the stocks that make up the majority of the Gates portfolio. Definitely more WEB influenced than Gates(with a couple exceptions). Oh yea, and the fact that Gates was buying stocks in Q1. Which is not to say Gates was bullish, but he clearly was OK buying the same stocks WEB often laments missing, while WEB himself, did not. If it was Gates, well than I think that needs to channel an entirely different bunch of queries. Such as, when the going gets tough, how do I feel about Bill Gates being the shot caller at BRK? I think the much more plausible scenario is that as things progressed, specifically mid to late May, it became obvious that while some of the already shut down states like NY/NJ etc would probably be shutdown for a long time, most of the rest of the country would open back up and people clearly weren't going to change their long term behaviors. Memorial Day I think was kind of a wake up call for many. Warren probably realized this, and while valuations arent by any means cheap, the other side is that now we have an economic reset, and subsequently, a low base(data wise) similar to what we had in 2010-2012, a point in time when many also felt the market was in a bubble and propped up by the Fed. The next piece of the puzzle may be revealed in a week or so, when Q2 positions get disclosed.

Thats certainly plausible, but is also a significant deviation from his attitude in early May. In May, he wasn't even certain the cash hoard would be sufficient. The stock was cheaper, by his own admission, at 225 in February. I'd suggest rewatching the AGM. There were folks here and other places, who were debating selling their stock because of how downbeat he sounded. Going from that to then potentially repurchasing the same amount of stock they did in all of 2019, inside of what was a 4-6 week window....definitely something changed. Put another way, if the stock was cheaper in February(when they bought 1.75B for the ENTIRE quarter), and the cash on hand wasn't enough under some scenarios, no way this guy is pouring money into buybacks at a record pace.

True, but in any event, one narrative after another continues to fall and this, if accurate, seems consistent with what has been hinted at for a while and scoffed at by many. Every time there is a retail bankruptcy, its like "OMG see!", but most dont understand how a bankruptcy works and if you look at the figures, who cares? Its not as though the leases are being rejected(by and large) in BK court. I'd further argue that a bankruptcy just further makes those companies reliant on their top grossing locations...another advantage to Simon. They are the only company I am aware of who isn't viewed as savvy when they buy out other companies at pennies on the dollar with JV partners; in fact, its skewed as a negative despite already demonstrating the ability to turn this into a windfall. Further, bankruptcy, especially in retail, does not equal failure if you have any familiarity with the way private equity bleeds these things. But the perception remains...brand goes BK= worthless, SPG buys it = desperate. The model is already out there. Look at the high end casino buildups. Entertain, living, convenience, except these will be just outside/in major cities. COVID significantly accelerated this. Trough earnings should be now through the next 18-24 months IMO. And its not like we're going to have to worry about profitability. This was just written up on VIC last week as well FYI.

How much can they charge /sqft renting part of the mall as warehouse? It’s a lesser use for sure. It also rounds counter network effects of a mall, if you rent out part of it for other purposes. I'm sure they can't charge much but even for department stores they were never able to charge much. This is probably even better in that it is lower capex than dept stores. It does take away from the network effects to some degree if the mall is thought of in a traditional sense. But the mall of the future is mixed uses - gyms, restaurant, bars, entertainment, office/hotel (maybe not anytime soon). I think the best value for the dirt is in that malls are strategically located near major highways which incidentally is exactly what you need for warehouses. Additionally thanks to NIMBYism, there might not be many other options in some communities. Not to mention lower construction costs since the plumbing, electric, walls, etc. are already there. This is already happening. https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2018/05/18/stay-shop-marriott-expands-its-partnership-with.html https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/02/25/simon-property-group-nhl-northgate-hocky-leiweke.html People are just blinded by the narrative.

Not really. I'd guarantee theyre getting more than the $5 sq/ft Sears and JCP are currently paying. The future of any mall is not going to be 100% retail. As we continue to see, they have many, many different options here. Location is key. SPG has it. EDIT: Further, if the thesis was that they'd get $5 a sq ft for their anchors and their anchors were all going out of business in the next 5 years....getting anything kind of debunks that and automatically improves the profile... These guys are world class operators.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-and-giant-mall-operator-look-at-turning-sears-j-c-penney-stores-into-fulfillment-centers-11596992863?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Owning the dirt gives you plenty of options....looks like they may not even need to demo the whole mall to go the "industrial/warehouse" route.

A vacation property is awesome if you use it enough. But the truth is that when you are not using it, its a total drag on your finances and more of a headache than a joy. So you have to weigh that out. Assuming you arent renting it out, its a total write-off. That you cant write off. If you do not intend to own longer term, I'd stick to renting, although then you have to deal with the inconvenience of seasonal rates, availability, and lugging back and forth all your stuff. It also comes down to what you're looking to buy. I know plenty of folks who live in million dollar homes that own $150-200k vacation homes in the Poconos/Adirondacks. Is it a palace you're buying, or just a place to rest while you enjoy the area? $200k in a tax friendly state, on a home that you dont need to be in tip top shape....much more doable than if you're looking for a second home type vacation place.

Typically a non 105b would dictate you must wait 3 days after an earnings announcement as a start. Then you also have to consider 2 weeks before the Q ends, up until you announce. Obviously there are ways around this, but if you want to see what the most aggressive scenario here could be, it is that. BRK did all of their repurchases between May 6, and June 16th....

Well, when we excuse protests because "theyre protesting", this is the other side... https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/donald-trump-claims-members-golf-005822741.html These people are hardly protesters, but theyre also not using BLM as an excuse to have this decades Woodstock moment...nevertheless, you make excuses for when/where the rules should be followed, you get blatant cases like this, where people just say "fuck you, I get to do it to"...

It is indeed very thought provoking. Theres a few things to look at and wonder. -Buffett said, in a not so veiled way that BRK was effectively "more cheap" at 225 in Feb than it was at 175 or so in early May at the time of the AGM. -Buybacks had stopped -His tone at the meeting was death -He sold airlines and WFC -BUT! Bought back a record number(in absolute terms, and in terms of pace) shortly thereafter -Has been adding aggressively to BAC If we eliminate the idea that he was laying it on thick, and trying to scare people into selling their stock...all Im left with is that he basically came to a radically different conclusion than he had previously, (big thing for some here)---->Admitted he missed the big opportunity in March/April, but also, seems to believe there is very different potential outcomes, even within similar sectors...IE WFC is so rotten its not even worth holding but BAC is still steaming cheap....And that, BRK is in pretty damn good shape....There's more too, but all in all there is a lot to process here but it does seem compelling in terms of garnering insight into how the man is thinking.

I would probably lean more towards the $200M number than the $30M. SPG owns a third of Aventura. On June 7, 2018, Aventura Mall, a property in which we own a noncontrolling 33.3% interest, refinanced its $1.2 billion mortgage loan and its $200.8 million construction loan with a $1.75 billion mortgage loan at a fixed interest rate of 4.12% that matures on July 1, 2028. An early repayment charge of $30.9 million was incurred at the property, which along with the write-off of deferred debt issuance costs of $6.5 million, is included in interest expense in the accompanying combined joint venture statements of operations. Our $12.5 million share of the charge associated with the repayment is included in income from unconsolidated entities in the accompanying consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. Excess proceeds from the financing were distributed to the venture partners.

Indeed, if the value creation lever is a wand waving, capital intensive project that spits out a Ross and a Petsmart, I cant think of a reason to not simply bypass all the execution risk and just buy into those things at 50% of NAV through UE...

So I am sure WEB wasn't lying, or doing his best Billy Boi Ackman impression, but given the figures....he'd have to have started buying back a more reasonable chunk of stock....right around the time of the AGM. Which, given what his tone was...is surprising.

You're not wrong, but won't you be kicking yourself in 30 years for not getting with the porn star when you had a chance? Well thats the question. Are these a worthy fling, or a long term commitment? Porn star vs prom queen... prom queen never has a great cashflow, but marries rich banker, tech guy, athlete, etc and is happily ever after. Porn star incinerates all her cash and is a washed up junkie by 32.

Since you knew at the time that Tesla will do fine, did you invest as you suggest now? It is good to heed lesson and learnings from success failure or otherwise. Important lesson on this deal was not to overpay on time value on LEAPS. As well, technology leverage(scaling) is as important as financial leverage Opportunities are always there with open minds, Many prior examples on this board , recent example shared by Sanjeev OSTK. Have learnt lot from you as well Jurgis. Thank you. The thread of usefulness in this type of thinking IMO, is that when you get an itch to play one of these types of things...figure out a way to get as much exposure possible for as little cash as possible.

NJ has 1793 deaths/million NY has 1687 deaths/million Texas has 280 deaths/million Florida has 361 deaths/million Are you saying NY & NJ listened to Trump and Texas & Florida did not listen to Trump? IF you go by deaths per million, the top 10 states are New Jersey, New York, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Missisippi. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Exactly. There's certain areas where politics plays a bigger part than others, and theres many where its just a convenient narrative. Any idea why, say, NYC, despite a rather negligible number of new daily COVID cases(for months now) has seen such muted recovery and virtually no uptick in many areas? Yet, say Georgia and Florida, despite basically experiencing similar daily case # as NY/NJ did during their peaks...continue to hold up better?

Ive been realizing that even some of the prom queens now moreso resemble prom queens that went on to become porn stars...There isn't very much in office/retail that is going to get credit(or a reasonable multiple) any time soon. Obviously I think this is a generational "reset" so to speak(at least with the higher quality names), but its amazing watching how these things trade compared to something like ARE. Its like "wait! what? REIT trading up on a green day and holding it on on a red day? I thought they always just go down."

Would 15% inflation not more or less guarantee a massive socialist policy change? Deflation/crashes they print money. Runaway inflation they'd have no choice but to take control of resources and "fairly" distribute/regulate them. Regardless of "the stock market" I see that scenario as what could ultimately cause America to implode.

34% on a blended basis doesnt seem too out there. I had heard from several folks 15-20% collection for indoor mall tenants was about the norm. Will be interesting to see when SPG reports in a few days.

I recall hilariously missing the forest for the trees on this one in December/January '19. At $150 I decided it was cheap enough to maybe take a pussy flyer by purchasing BRK at $196 for pass through exposure. Valuable lessons always to be learned. Sigh.

Truly a gem this clown is! Makes me LOL every time! Always posts about me wherever I go and can’t help but follow me even when I am not having a conversation with the clown or posting about a stock he is invested in. I get to live rent free in his head (not like the real estate is in high demand anyway!). As they say: “Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them.” BAHAHAHAH Oh...thank god! Whew. I was worried you wouldn't respond. Or worse, feared that you had "left for good"....

Oh man. This continues to get better. He's taking his ball and going home because all the quality posters have left and it s a waste of his time. Then he comes back. He doesnt respond to certain types of people, but then responds every time. Its been a true pleasure watching the shape shifter and "Houdini of Accountability" in action. In April, emboldened by predictions that coronavirus cases and death figures would go up! remarks "I hope you and your kind are invested in the market"! Now? humbly he/she/they "admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements". Has the market humbled this squirmy fellow? Or does the narrative just continue to shift, one by one, falling like dominos...