Castanza
Member-
Posts
2,112 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by Castanza
-
Well "you" basically can't. Bonds are a very cloudy market and the brokers like it that way. Really the easiest way would be to get access to a Bloomberg terminal. Doesn't that info have to exist as public information somewhere? Just spit balling here.....not super familiar with corporate bonds, but it seems "transparency" would be required by the SEC? Maybe someone else can speak to the legality side of this?
-
Looks like moves are being made, possible news coming out? Can't find anything but volume is way up and it just broke through 52 week high.
-
I think the Finra trade data comes from actual trades reported by brokers and dealers so I think it is highly accurate. There is a also a screener with it which is decent. Not sure about pulling raw data but I think the site is meant for small users as they don't want people pulling 20 pages of data all at once. Inefficient if you ask me. How does one go about getting info from brokers and dealers?
-
I've used Finra but I've heard that it isn't always accurate on the prices. Also I'm looking form something that I can pull the raw data from and use as I please. Where does finra get their information?
-
I've been doing a little "educational research" into corporate bonds but I'm having a hard time finding any relevant data. Is there a reason most of this info is locked behind institutions compared to stocks? Is there some way to get access to it via license etc. other than a Bloomberg terminal?
-
We already have that in place. If I get even one complaint of politics entering into a non-politic board/thread, I investigate. If it is something blatant, then it is removed (not moved). If it is something that is mentioned in passing, then I leave it. So the more complaints I get about a post, the more likely it will be removed. Politics should stay in the Politics section, and those that don't want to waste time with politics, always have the option (which is very easy to do and works extremely effectively) to ignore the Politics board altogether. If we don't have the "Politics" board, then I will be constantly getting complaints about politics in the Investment sections. The manpower needed to monitor that on a free site would no longer make the site free. Cheers! Thanks for the insight!
-
I appreciate the feedback. Does anyone think a moderation tool would be useful? Example: I alter the discussion of a thread by bringing up politics. Someone reports my comment which sends it for a vote to be removed for politics. If say 5 other members vote yes then the comment is removed from the thread. Or is that just too much work? I know there are some threads that have been going for a long time and it can be frustrating to see them hijacked by politics. Or is self accountability just a better option. I'm happy with whatever. I just noticed a "pushback" recently regarding politics.
-
I get that, but do you feel it takes away from content? As in people are only coming here for political discussion instead of discussing investing? Just ignoring it doesn't necessarily fix the issue. I get your point though, I can see how it prevents spill over.
-
My question is does AirBus have the ability to absorb large amounts of orders and efficiently produce them? They are already backlogged with 7k+ planes. https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html Boeing also has other planes. Not just the 737. Lufthansa ordered 40 787's the day after the Indonesia crash occurred. https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/english/newsroom/lufthansa-group-orders-40-state-of-the-art-boeing-787-9-and-airbus-a350-900-long-haul-aircraft/s/8e28b9e1-a775-4fee-8ea5-391be31d4600 Sure companies could cancel and we undoubtedly will see come choose to do so. But is it a bit premature to assume all 600bn worth of orders are at risk? I think most companies would (especially the ones at the from of the line) would be willing to work with Boeing on this issue. The R&D team is obviously going into hyper drive to correct the issue at hand. You can also assume they are going beyond what is required to root out other potential issues. These backlogs can take years to fill. I can't picture airlines jumping ship if their order is due soon. How many companies could afford to take a new number and go to the back of the line? What happens if Airbus has an issue with one of their planes in the next year or two? But a short position in the near term could be profitable, especially if a few people abandon their orders.
-
As a new member of this site I was pretty excited to have a place to come to talk about value investing. There aren't many places on the web with a good gathering of people who put effort into their posts like they do here. However, I'm sure we can all agree that the "political" posts have been far outnumbering "investing posts" or simply garnering more attention. I'm not sure how long most of you have been members but I can tell its beginning to bring "divisiveness and division" to members here. As someone else pointed out it's beginning to spill over into other threads as well. Now, I am just as guilty as most and can't pass on the temptation to take a jab etc. But I think to keep that sanctity of this forum and have one place untainted by politics we should remove the political section and just refrain from posting political posts. Forums really aren't conducive for political discussion anyways. Not sure what type of moderating there is on here but I would be more than happy to help with this. Or if you think there is someone better because I'm new that's understandable. Undoubtedly there are some posts which will involve politics and investing. Fed Rate hikes, taxes, etc. Those are unavoidable and should be discussed as they are important. But we should do our best to stay on topic and discuss the situation instead of the political opinions behind the situation. So again, I apologize for my conduct and involvement in the overbearing political posts. Regards, Castanza
-
What's your favorite quotes from books and guru investors
Castanza replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
And you'd almost certainly have more (due to efficiency) is govt stayed out of all those things minus rule of law. Private schools outperform. Private infrastructure works just fine. There are hundreds of examples. me Too bad my parents couldn't afford private school for me. Private school would be much cheaper if the monopoly, i mean govt would remove itself from the public education system and allow the free market to work. Let teacher compete for a salary. It's funny when you get rid of monopolies prices generally go down....You really think if all schools were private that they would hold the entire population hostage with high prices an nowhere to go? When exactly did college begin to get expensive? When did healthcare begin to get expensive? -
What's your favorite quotes from books and guru investors
Castanza replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
And you'd almost certainly have more (due to efficiency) is govt stayed out of all those things minus rule of law. Private schools outperform. Private infrastructure works just fine. There are hundreds of examples. me -
What's your favorite quotes from books and guru investors
Castanza replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
"I would have almost 2k more a month to invest if I didn't have to pay income tax, SS, and medicare. 24k a year, 480k over 20 years. which would be worth almost double that if invested in SPY (backtest from 1990-2010)." me -
I agree, FedEx is beginning to show signs of trouble. I Agree with the above comment that the TNT acquisition was a poor choice. Europe IS slowing. I work on the IT side (big data) for a lot of European companies and I can say they are pinching pennies and the sentiment has certainly shifted. I think if you want to make a play in logistics a lot of the 3rd party or smaller logistics companies are better plays. C.H Robinson for example. I think UPS is better positioned because they are primarily focused in the US. I think we will see manufacturing work its way back as government cracks down on transportation, emission, etc. Look at the standard changes in ship fuel (low sulfur). IMO it's just the beginning. Many products currently have razor thin margins to ship (see $BERY) as it is. I think this will force companies to manufacture in a more "local" area. But the pension issues at UPS still keep me away. Haven't purchased any shares since I left the company (10% discount was nice). And I currently don't hold any.
-
Dwy000, your concern was asked by an analyst on the conference call... and the CEO basically said they are running the company for the long term and the investments they are making are necessary (like replacing the oldest airplanes in their fleet over the next 18 months). Bottom line is we likely can expect negative free cash flow the next year or two, which is not ideal. They continue to really struggle with the TNT aquisition; weakness in Europe is not helping. I love the industry with all the tailwinds. It is an oligopoly. It is disappointing that Fedex is not able to post better returns. The next year looks to have more headwinds than tailwinds for the company. Thanks Viking I missed that. I like the industry dynamics as well and only see this industry growing going forward which is why I started to dig in. The problem with the CEO's reply is that the future never comes. Replacing aging planes and upgrading systems and technology isnt really one time or growth - that's just running the business. In my view the TNT acquisition has been a disaster. The integration costs are counted in the $billions and it doesnt appear to have created much in the way of synergies (cost or revenue) yet. If you cant generate huge cash flow in todays business environment and with the industry tailwinds you really have to ask under what circumstances it will. Watching in fascination from the sdielines... Not sure about the service time of planes but I know at UPS for their package car fleet the life expectancy was 30 years. And they all were under warranty for at least the first two years. I will say the newer trucks are junk (Workhorse, and Freightliners) I believe the Freightliners had the same 5.7L engine Chevy used in the Silverado. But everything new is gas even though diesel is more fuel efficient etc. Our mechanics were always complaining about the issues with these brand new trucks. We had quite a few old diesels that had over 1mil miles on them and were still going out on daily routes. There were a few gas ones that had close to that but probably had a few different engines in them over their service time. I don't have any financials though so this is "educated speculation." But I'm sure you could find the price somewhere. It is also worth noting that UPS runs their own "u pull it" scrap yard where they retire their fleet and part them out. They used to sell them for a decent price but stopped this for security reasons. I'm sure insurance costs are extremely high on these things. I know from a liability standpoint any intersection accident that involved another driver would cost UPS an average of 40.6k, and this goes up every year or so. Sorry I'm kind of rambling lol Long story short, I would say you're right and wrong that the future never comes. But there are periods where fleets aren't being grown.
-
24 planes w/AAL... say that's 48 flights per day and each flight has 200 passengers paying $250/ride that's $876m of lost revenues over the course of the year Southwest would lose $1.24B of revenues using the same metrics maybe this mess lasts a quarter at worst? Boeing was already working on a solution after LION Air. If this issue is the same, then I can't imagine this lasting very long. I wonder if other airlines will gouge customers on pricing due to supply/demand.
-
To me this whole situation is way overblown. - We have people with no engineering credentials saying to ground the planes (Mitt Romney) - No evidence has been shown - Black Box is being shipped to another "country" - SW pilots just came out and backed the 737 - It's documented that since the LION Air crash US pilots have been briefed on changes and trained properly. It is interesting to note that individual airlines are responsible for the training and briefing. These other countries Don't have nearly the same standards as the FAA. - People suggest the FAA is in the pocket of Boeing. I agree with this slightly, however they have grounded many of beings planes in the past. See 787 in 2013. So to me this doesn't fit the narrative. Personally I believe the FAA is simply standing up for and behind their strict regulations, policies, guidelines, protocols, and exhaustive list of specifications. Could there be an issue? Absolutely, But there isn't anything to suggest that yet. Either way, I'm long BA. This whole thing will blow over just like the Talc powder thing for JNJ two months ago. Plus it helps my DCA is low 200's :)
-
A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices
Castanza replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
No interest in investing in the field. I just like the tech and am looking forward to the EV transition. Just seems like an industry filled with snake oil. I can't make heads or tails about it and that's enough to keep me away. -
A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices
Castanza replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
And where are you putting your money? Automakers? Miners/Metals? Battery manufacturers? This "sector" seems far to broad to me and feels a lot like the "1940's aerospace" example in the Intelligent Investor. -
https://drivetribe.com/p/tesla-owners-make-up-majority-of-Ya7TnGQnSUS5BPiCLTDE7g?iid=UbgRnmTfQh2HAxnHmyErMg A bit vague, but still insightful. Shows that "Tesla brand loyalty" everyone preaches isn't as strong as first thought.
-
Fair enough, I respect that stance.
-
Didn't management way there were multiple parties interested? Why would they turn down an 11.50 bid if there weren't better offers on the table? Even if they dont selel I think there is still plenty of room for Mitek to grow.
-
Almost pulled the trigger on this two months ago. I just can't stomach the business for some reason. Not something I feel comfortable buying into. It's expensive, not completely unique, can easily be replicated (see blue apron clones) which will eventually bring razor thin margins. And it seems like a fad that won't be sustainable if we see any type of economic slowdown. I know people who have used it and said it's not really worth it (anecdotal). I'd just rather park my money somewhere else. That being said, I can see them being a buyout target in the future. SFIX is best in class at what they do and as mentioned above they have the most data scientists etc. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. If you had a position, congrats!
-
Can you expand upon this a bit? In regards to the patience comment. I think shareholders are content with either a sale or continued growth. I would be unhappy to see the company prematurely sold without realizing the full value Mitek's product is worth.