Castanza

SAN and Eurobank are reasonable positions for me. Sberbank is one of my largest holdings, but may not qualify as European. Tiny position in DB. What is your thesis on Sberbank over others. The PE is amazing cheap, but I didn't know it's market cap was as big as it is... but, it is dominate in Russia.... but, it's trading close to book. Mostly covered in other threads on Russian stocks. It's stupid cheap for being one of the largest and most profitable banks in the world. Is already a target of sanctions due to be partially state-owned and those didn't stop it which eases the threat going forward. Lastly, it's a flight to quality for Russian depositors - Sberbank collects deposits in crisis while it's competition fails, leaving it more consolidated and with less competition going forward. This was true in both 2008 as well as 2014-2016. It will likely be true in the future. Interesting, I've had this on my watch list for a bit now. Gonna have to dive in a little deeper. Any other insights to share? The sanctions piece you mentioned was interesting, that's was one thing that made me hesitant.

I'm a bit mixed on the results. At one end it would have been nice to see that buyout and take my gains and put my cash to work somewhere else, but on the other end I really like their new CEO. He seems very knowledgeable and seems to be pushing the company in the correct direction. I'm not really concerned with the share drop as it seems to simply have weeded out the people simply playing the m/a and I do feel pretty confident buying at this level (Although I think we could see mid 9's). The financials look pretty good and their customer base is expanding simply on their presence/respect in the market place. I believe they picked up Credit Karma this past quarter (don't quote me on that) Their main competition (Jumio) seemed to have a good quarter as well. But it's hard to say because they're private and I can't see their financials. I think this space is very hot right now and Mitek certainly has a good (growing) client base. Now that I'm typing this I'm actually happy they didn't sell (could eat crow on that later). I am a bit overweight in my positions so that is slightly annoying (expected that merger for sure), but what can you do. Castanza

Surprisingly no acquisition. “Over the past several months, our Board of Directors has led a process to engage with several interested parties to evaluate the relative benefits of various strategic alternatives, with a view to maximizing value for our shareholders. Following a thorough review of the results, the Board of Directors determined that there were no offers that it deemed in the best interest of Mitek shareholders, and today, we are announcing that we have concluded this process. We continue to focus on maximizing the significant opportunities we see for Mitek in the marketplace and remain thoroughly committed to delivering shareholder value through operating and growing the business.” - Max

I don't understand how people justify wild claims like this? Tesla to 4000?

Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

Pfizer is partnered with Sangamo wouldn't they have anti-trust issues if they were the 2nd bidder? Relationship Sangamo and Pfizer https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/sangamo_and_pfizer_announce_phase_1_2_interim_data_for_investigational_hemophilia_a_gene_therapy SB-525 Sangamo https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03061201?term=sangamo SPK-8011(SPARK) https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03432520?intr=SPK-8011&titles=SPK-8011&rank=1 Also (I can only read the summary :P) Roche could have 50% market share by 2023 https://ctfn.news/essentials/four-essentials-from-ctfn-this-week-3

Personally I would like to know what Commerzbank saw that made them back out of the deal. Paul Achleitner is holding firm to his conviction that their current path is the correct one. But when someone else pulls out of a deal based on those efforts it makes you wonder if they are on the right path or not?

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2019/04/update-on-money-demand-currently-stable.html As always, Scott put out a few high quality posts this month. Regards

Curious on your thesis for shorting VBK?

Columbus, OH

Looks like the only coffee maker that they sell is the Aero Press! That thing has replaced every coffee making device that I own, I love it. And just about everyone I've made coffee for ends up with one too. Seriously, if you don't have one pick one up, it's a very good value. Couldn't agree more! Perfect for backpacking as well. Always gives me a chuckle when the company who makes them is also known for making Frisbees....SO random

I don't agree with that. I think you're a dismissive of brand and the social "power/equity" they hold. SBUX is a bit of a status item. Sure there may be a slightly cheaper alternative but as a general rule people want to feel "included" etc. As shallow as that sounds even simple everyday purchases give people this sense of satisfaction. There is a reason you don't see people post Instagram pics with #McDonaldsCafe nearly to the extent of #Starbucks (or whatever the actual hashtags are) even though McDonald's coffee products have improved a lot. The Chinese are no different from westerners. I trust Starbucks marketing team to position themselves firmly in the social stratosphere. Look how many knockoff brands there are for basically every product. In my opinion it only solidifies the social aspect of the product that is being ripped off. It's human nature to recognize this. Otherwise we would see cases of knockoff brands overtaking the originals. Off hand I can't think of any examples (there may be some).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000022/xslF345X03/wf-form4_155622696518504.xml Not sure what to make of this. Options weren't close to expiry, yet he payed 56k to convert them to common share? What's the reasoning behind a move like this?

Could you expand on this a little? Liquidity is coming almost entirely from the underwriting group, the issues are being priced at slightly below market (to evidence a marketing bump on issue), and underwriters are focused on volume (fees) - not quality. Get as much out the door as possible before the opportunity closes, and dump the inventory as quietly as possible. SD I see, definitely a good point. Ever since Venture Capital money has come into play, IPO's have been well, "disingenuous." These companies come out of the gates with massive valuations its hard to see how they are't set up for failure. Not sure if anyone watches the HBO series "Silicon Valley." But this show highlights some of these issues, such as being overvalued when you IPO. Also it's just a damn funny show.

Could you expand on this a little?

Spek is right: I actually canceled my prime membership that ive had since '08. Prices were not as good for some of the books I was looking at. Plus, late last year I took their seller app and scanned in a dozen or so bar codes at the store and they were either in line and not worth buying at the store to arb the diff or were not allowed to be sold on prime. On twitch all i lost was my prime sub. Sometimes I view adverts in a separate browser thats muted and give away the bits I get for them. They do throttle me sometimes but you can usually get 2-3 bucks a week depending on how much they give you. Each advert can give you 5, 10, 50, 75 bits randomly and are worth a penny apiece. You can pass them out to anyone and split if you want to. AMZN as a market place slowly becomes too unwieldy. It’s almost like an Department store ormolu, where you could by everything, but nothin really competitive. Too many crap products from questionable resellers, and some are obviously trying to screw customers with tricky packaging sizes etc. I know order more things from retailers (online and shop to store from Home Depot and other Brick &Mortar mortar retailers , as their offerings are more curated and they don’t have resellers. I think Walmart could really make a dent too, if they get their offering together. AMZN speed of delivery is hard to beat though. Amazon doesn't really deliver their own products in most locations. Prime wouldn't even be an option if it weren't for FedEx and UPS. I think "logistics" is one key advantage Walmart has over Amazon. Walmart's distribution network (truck drivers, warehouses, stores) rival a lot of actual logistics companies. I can see them changing their store warehouses into fulfillment centers and possible have employees deliver items to their local surroundings. One other thing I can see (I work in the industry) is AWS is going to continue to lose dominance over the next decade. This is an issue for Amazon as this has to hurt their bottom line. 90% of Americans live within 15 min of a Walmart The average family of 4 spends 4k a year at Walmart

Even if we were to wait 1000 years for better sample sizes how accurate would the data even be? I'm not a fan of historical averages. I mean look at how the world has changed in the last 50 years. There are far too many variables in my opinion to draw any type of conclusion which would make me feel confident in averaging a 7% return. The time is now and whatever the return now is what we will get. I think putting more effort into real time vs historical time is far more important. But there still is value in terms of historical perspectives. Especially when it comes to policies, and psychological/sociological trends (Which can be hard to justify at times as well.) I'll leave this skyline montage to simply show how much places in Asia, SA, and the Middle East have changed. Certainly these have effects on today's economy compared to the early 1900's when the populations were low all over and countries were more nationally focused. http://the-technology-tips.blogspot.com/2014/03/20-skylines-of-world-then-vs-now.html

Greg, I agree completely. People shouldn't be thin skinned. But censorship wasn't the purpose. It was more to protect the sanctity and purpose of the forum to keep it from getting overrun like every other forum that has fallen due to this exact thing. But you're right, it's probably best to just ignore and move along. Regards,

Glad to be here John! In short I did not create this post assuming I had some democratic power haha. I am new to this site so my insight to the effectiveness of the political section is limited. The main reason I posted this was because I noticed a lot of people complaining about political posts and how they were beginning to bleed into other topics. Believe me, I am all for freedom of speech and freedom of opinion. But that doesn't mean a forum created for a specific purpose shouldn't be moderated. In the end I just want what the members want. Nobody seemed to raise the question so i thought why not? I was pretty excited to find this site as it seemed to be much more focused and had much more knowledgeable members than other forums. I get where you're coming from, but at the same time this forum isn't limiting ones ability to partake in free speech elsewhere. Politics certainly have a big influence on our investments and in an earlier post I said it should be completely fine to have political discussion if it relates to investing in some way. But I hardly can see how discussing Jesse Smollett would affect my investments. I don't think it's a bad thing to have a place void of political discussion simply to discuss investments. Viking had a good point. It's not easy to handle. But you have to weigh the cost benefit. In the end, I don't have strong opinions one way or another. I can see both sides to the argument which backs up the difficulty of the situation. As John pointed out this isn't a democratic forum (I guess?) but at the same time you think some people (long time members) would have a say. I think Sanjeev makes the best point as to why it exists. But I think it would be beneficial to have "politics" hidden by default so it's not thrust on new members immediately. Self-policing is probably how I will move forward regarding my interactions. Again, to all I don't want to cause any "angst." Just something I picked up on as a new member with a fresh view. Regards

That was my thought at first as well. And politics is easy to get sucked into. I think having the thread kind of pulls you in. But I wasn't here before so I cant really say and I trust what others say about it being better now. I think at the very least the "Political Section" should be hidden from view as a default.

Be willing to spend 100 hours analyzing 50 different companies and at the end of those 100 hours be willing to walk away without taking a position. I see a lot of people who feel obligated to open a position simply because they put in the leg work. In other words, don't let time spent doing DD emotionally affect your decisions.

$HCLP $SLCA After 2015 fracking ground to a pretty sudden halt in the Marcellus and Utica shales. This was primarily due to prices, storage capacity, and logistics. Oil prices are projected to rebound and increased regulation is helping natural gas begin to shift back into the limelight. This time around the target is the Permian shale basin. And this time around the big boys Exxon and Chevron are getting heavily involved. Northern White Frac sand is still the gold standard. HCLP and SLCA are well positioned for the influx of drilling ahead. The key to this game is logistics. Being able to get the sand where it needs to be when it needs to be there at a reasonable price. Both companies have pros and cons. HCLP has done a good job in my opinion developing their silo system (and has signed some big contracts). This is a unique advantage over competition. Personally I don't love the financials of these companies. HCLP just recently converted to a C-corp which hopefully helps them get better rates on capital (which I'd rather they not borrow and use FCF). But as well all know these a boom and bust industries. I like the management at HCLP and they have been very strategic and direct about their projects. A few articles i found interesting. First one is a few years old but very informative. https://www.aogr.com/magazine/frac-facts/permian-driving-frac-sand-supply-shift https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250935-hi-crush-partners-hitting-paydirt http://www.petroleumconnection.com/digest

The stock looks very pricey to me. They need a hell of an earnings recovery to justify the current valuation. "Could have value." In the pizza world it seems like there would be a lot of fixed costs for companies across the board. Starboard just put 200M into Papa back in Feb. They were a big catalysts for Olive Garden (Darden) who is doing quite well now. That being said, I typically don't follow the restaurant sector. There is a lot of things I don't understand about it, its very trendy etc. Redemption could take a few years for sure and it will probably keep going down from here. But at some point this could be a really interesting value play. It's hard to carry a moat in the pizza industry.

I've thought about that. I mean, what the hell right? The worst they can say is no. Which is the most likely situation.

Papa Johns has just restructured. I believe Shaq was added to the board and they are making extreme steps to mitigate the negative press it received when the former CEO went on a racist rage. They seem to be reinventing themselves. Just saw this on the weekend and have been wanting to dig into it. Their stock has been beaten down pretty badly and there could be some value here.