Gregmal

Even Buffett admitted last year that the market may be cheap if interest rates stay low. We just don't know. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/warren-buffett-says-stocks-are-ridiculously-cheap-if-interest-rates-stay-at-these-levels.html The market means different things to different people. Berkshire Hathaway for instance, is 99% confidence NOT in the bubble. MSFT is possible, but not likely. ZM, most likely is. One can start there, and plan their allocations for the next 3-5 years rather than the next 3-5 months. 80% BRK, 30% MSFT, and short 15% ZM probably works whether the bubble bursts or not. The names and allocations are just examples, so if you disagree, dont get too hung up on them. The one big thing with euphoric markets is that there are too many participants involved that shouldn't be. Their money is there for our taking.

Saying you dont know is bullshit. You know in the sense that you can tell there are unsustainable things going on, you dont know if tomorrow is the day that it ends. Its the same in theory as how you know you need flood insurance when buying a waterfront home in Florida, know you need wind/hail coverage in Oklahoma, and know you are better off without insurance on the crapshack country home in upstate NY. Sometimes more caution is warranted than others. The more data you haver to support more caution, the more refined your insurance can be.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-19/chinese-scientists-develop-gene-therapy-which-could-delay-ageing

Swung some SPG into BAM, bought a few MSFT calls, and got a few shares of FOXWU IPO

Lame, no banana hammocks?

Is it considered easy money when a stock is so cheap it rallies 10% in two days because the founder is sighted?

Sold some HHC

Eh those guys are boring. Where's my man Bill Chen? Jokes aside the RICK, BUR, and BAKKA ideas are interesting.

Sure there are valid points to that, but at some point, I would imagine a shareholder hope that they fire on all cylinders and run efficiently rather than giving everyone a perpetual discount to buy as a result of poor decision making.

Quarterbacking is the easiest thing in the world to do, until you actually are the quarterback. Then you hear all of the bullshit from the Sunday morning couch quarterbacks about what you should be doing. Cheers! Yea...that would be true if there wasn't tons of people doing live play by play during much of the timeframe in question. Except there has been. Look at the difference between this and Berkshire. People start salivating every time there's speculation Buffett might be buying something new. People hold the breathe every time Prem does the same and are basically just praying for breakeven with half of the portfolio. Thats a big reason for the discount in the market.

Leaving it up to the investment team certainly wasnt the right decision for the past decade. They should wind down the shitco investments and just repurchase stock or buy some Berkshire. If they can find away to remove the real dollar drag and market discount ascribed to some of the blunders, this will rerate in a hurry.

Bought a tiny, 100% speculative XRP position before the trading suspension. Dont give 2 hoots about XRP but I think I am comfortable with my understanding of how SEC related issues get resolved and and while there is always the risk its wiped out or never trades again on a mainstream basis(hence small position), if things go the way I expect them to this should open 3-4x higher than where it is now.

Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT. Sold 2/3 of GILT, paid down some margin, added more BRK.

Just double check that you're buying a cash box and see what the warrant terms are. Otherwise, manager doesnt matter, nor does track record.

I think this is a great comment. I've long said that betting against the "exceptions to the rule" has been almost fool proof, especially right after the exception just occurred. I can name on probably 405 sheets of loose leaf paper the number of folks I know who have missed great investments because they were scared of "MSFT was a bad investment if you bought at the top in 1999". That said, this isnt really an endorsement of the markets. I think "the market" is a stupid and lazy term. A better approach is just really to use common sense. When you see a gazillion no/low revenue spac deals representing BILLIONS going up the way it has, you would be wise to use caution. Garbage companies with no path to profitability are not sustainable regardless of what market we are in. A clever story stock with a long runway? Well, thats a different story. A clever story stock thats already valued at $800B? A robust and durable cash cow trading at 15x? I mean sometimes the market is really simple. I think bubble is definitely accurate in terms of some areas. Being honest with yourself about what makes sense and what doesnt is key to it. How many stupidly academic smart guys over the years shorted things because "30x sales" while ignoring "new tech", "300M market cap", "respected founding partners/investors", "low rates", etc. Its really easy not to become someone who blows themselves up when the bubble bursts, and its also really easy not to become someone who generates dogshit returns because you're scared of the bubble. Just use your head and stay within your confidence zones.

I forget the thread but theres a good bit of detail on this subject there with Ronchong and a few others. EDIT: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/evrenewable-bubble-the-next-dot-com-burst/ In terms of current plays, you really just need to keep a tab on whats IPO-ing. Had ADERU IPO this past week and FOXWU coming tomorrow/Wednesday.

Oh definitely. I was talking with someone last week about this, but BRK for a long while has been looked at as basically an index alternative. Thats a narrative that is about to be shattered.

The Arizona Coyotes have better attendance than the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Buffett has made plenty of mistakes, but so have we all, if counting things we missed is in there. The difference with most, is simply omission vs commission. Its largely why I dislike Fairfax but at various points like to load the boat on Berkshire. Buffett when he acts, typically gets it right or misses small. He'll drive everyone nuts doing nothing. But this is preferable to Watsa who is always doing something and screws up, big, quite frequently. Much easier to forecast the former than the latter. All Buffett needs to do at these prices is marginally buyback stock and let the businesses operate. If he gets anything else right, watch out.

The uplisting I would think is probably a back half 2021 event, if I had to make a guess that was 75% based on realistic outcomes, and 25% optimistic. I agree, Q3 was solid, and overall, 100 times out of 100 had you told me things would end up turning out they way they did back in March/April, I would have taken it and run. My only source of complaint is minor at this point. Raising(and thus diluting) at 1.15 is not really acceptable to me when they know they can immediately uplist and get a significantly better valuation and therefor terms on financing. IIRC this was back in August or so...so its more of a grimace and "lets hope they dont do it again" type of thing. I am very eager to see what their preliminary forecasts that they generally deliver in mid February looks like. I think for sure, if they get too cavalier about not uplisting, there will start to be pushback. I hope they are getting the message from some of their shareholders that it is negligent to do future capital raises and especially equity issuances before they uplist. Otherwise, I have no complaints with how they've done things. The comps for the next 4 Qs should be very favorable(minus maybe Q1) for obvious reasons. They have both the recovery benefitting everyone, plus also a full year of acquisition integrations to show off in their results. Insurance pickup should also help as several US places such as NY continue to become more favorable to IVF.

So why so bullish on BRK? Is it absolute value? Relative value? Cyclical play? What are a catalysts to get the stock moving? More buybacks? Mystery new purchase? Buffett finally putting cash hard to work? One headwind is Apple valuation (very expensive and could come way down if we get a sell off). Do you really like financials? I do like BRK; it looks cheap... is it crazy cheap (to warrant big overweight)? Just trying to understand... Just my opinion of course but its all of the above and then some. Apple may have been a huge home run, but that certainly didnt get fully priced into the shares. I bring up from time to time my mistake of buying BRK at $196 in Jan 2019 bc I liked the exposure to AAPL at $160(pre split) and all the financials... I think buybacks will be solid, although somewhat muted as a result of the longer YE-Q1 blackouts requirements. But going forward I would expect repurchase figures to ramp, much more in line with the most recent Q than those before it. Financials have also run, but again, BRK? Not so much. Insurance should be solid. Energy will continue rebounding. Heck this darn thing is basically flat y/y. I view the spring as coiled. It can win as a cyclical, it can win if rates rise, it can win from these levels in so many different scenarios that the optionality becomes very appealing. Its only a matter of time before the money flow finds its way here as the value proposal between this and the rest of the market is too big to ignore. The upside will happen. Ive noticed this thing tends to move in quick bursts. Downside will be buffered by all the cash, the recovering economy, and buybacks. I see many scenarios where this could easily peel of 15-20% to the upside. I have a very hard time envisioning the same type of downside. $190 is very hard to picture. So I think the deck is stacked quite favorably here and as such, its time to bet big.

More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation!

Nice call on this.

Yea well thats the beauty of the market and people who get emotional about investing.

Not to sound like a dipshit, but you guys should know by now that these trade like molasses. Good news bleeds up and bad news bleeds down, and Ive never really seen the entirety of this play out at the open or even by noon after an "announcement". Typically days or weeks. My NGAF read is that this is reasonably positive for the preferreds and not so great for common. But I have no clue otherwise as this is just a never-ending drama. See you in court as they say. I'd probably lean towards marginally adding here.