Gregmal

^ Yea I slept in this morning a bit...when I did my usual account checks, saw BTC move, shrugged shoulders, and said "Happy New Year"...good times.

What if after picking door 3 they show you door 1 is empty? Will you change your guess?

For the ones that do, yes I agree. Been doing that a bunch with PSTH as well.

I think this is a very strong takeaway that cant be stated enough. Over the years Ive become more and more grateful for flipping my "value investor" position on the concept of "trading". For a long time I subscribed to the notion sold by people like Buffett that "short term trading is a fools game". There is a huge contingency of "value investor" who are almost willfully proud about being stupid and dismissive of the idea of trading. They're kind of like anti vaxxers or Earth is flat folks. But the truth is that managing investments with a trading angle is a massively beneficial tool in terms of managing risk and being opportunistic. Ive read in a few places that like 85% of the markets returns occur during something like 10% of its trading days. Even with respect to this year, I had many reminders of this. Selling DDS puts and buying calls a few days before the short squeeze thesis played out after Teds 13G netted over 800% and buying $100 MSGE calls while the stock languished between $65-75 just seemed too good to be true...and paid off between 170-1600%. Being flexible in philopshy and dynamic in application was a lesson that 2020 cemented in me. Trading in a sense, is really just monetizing volatility. @John Hjorth. Sorry for your loss. It is easy to look at things in the simple good/bad context. Ive had a number of events in my life that most been would describe as "not good" or probably even much worse. At the time they are unpleasant. Painful even. But as you get through them I find them just as valuable and even more so than "good" events or memories. I dont think Id describe any of them, in hindsite, as "bad" experiences though. Same with 2020. Everything one experiences in life molds that person and their pool of wisdom/understanding. Like a video game, as you advance, having conquered past levels, you inevitably carry with you those lessons. Hopefully you and your family are well in the new year and may your brother rest in peace.

So pretty much buy at $10.5 and risk 5% or so (since it’s quite hard to find priced at below $10 these days) and try to sell on any hype..? I hesitate to say "yes" because as myself and others have touched on, the market is dynamic and you have to adapt and evolve. But generally speaking, yes, I think you have the gist of it and that is what I am doing right now. Normally, I'd hate buying at 10.5, but thats the market and to me, ~5% worst case risk isnt a big deal. However traditionally, IE before the spac bubble started, you'd normally want to keep a lid at 10.2 or so. Buy below and sell over. Much more boring and tedious than whats going on now, but hey, if you want an outsized return for minimal risk, you have to do something and that something in this case is simply monitoring these very rigorously, and then being disciplined with buying and selling. To my knowledge you cant really sell puts on spac because most do not have options until close to a deal close.

Yea this one is a turd. It might go up because of BTC. So if thats your reason for buying, buy BTC. There is a reason this stock has been a dud for years. The CEO being a Bitcoin trader is essentially the long thesis.....

Not anymore IMO. Theres too much excitement built into the space. Even the trading strategy I detailed above has been rerating and it s an area of inefficiency that more and more folks are waking up to. If you are close to $10, if anything, IMO, you want to load the boat and then sell the options. Had a few great trades this year with SPAQ and PIC where you get quite close to $10 and can take a 5-10% portfolio position with a tight stop(IE a 10% position with a 5% stop really just means you are risking 50 bps) and really swing hard. These were post announcement but pre close. Its a different trade so theres other factors to consider, but until deal close, you still have the floor.

Agree that BABA is positioned nicely. Not too keen on the current market setup. But otherwise, I think you can throw darts at Sun Belt related real estate and housing stuff and make 10-15%+. Similar to last year, I'd say if you're being conservative, Berkshire Hathaway has a lot of unique things collectively converging and I am expecting it to break out in a major way. If you're willing to take a little more risk, Hamilton Thorne.

Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers

Never. The entire benefit of spac(at least before they became the hot new retail investor way to invest in green energy) was that if you didnt like the deal, you could redeem your shares. Many big hedge funds have historically bought spac IPO as a cash alternative and then automatically redeem the shares regardless of the deal. So specifically to your question, they could announce the acquisition of an invisible bridge and you'd still be able to exit at $10.

Can you give an example, both successful and failed, of how this works? I am curious to know more. Im lazy on this evening, but briefly, follow a bunch of SPACs, pre deal, pre announcement. As close to their IPO as possible, ideally. There's places that list and track them. Right now theres about 400 out there. $10 is your IPO price for the units. You are guaranteed redemption at $10 plus interest over the course of 18m or whatever. Real example. CFIIU. IPO was August. Traded for a few weeks in 9.90s. I bought it. After 50 days or so the warrants can separate as thus typically rise in value. Unit is stock + % warrant. Between IPO and warrant separation you almost always get at least 2-3%, even before the mania. CFIIU I sold a couple months later at ~10.40 and then the rest on deal announcement. You need to know nothing about the spac, $10 per share of cash, thats it. Then time and deal excitement give you an opportunity to take your %. Even if you are getting in at 10.3 or 10.4, you know where you floor is(10) and can sell higher and add lower pretty effortlessly. CAPAU and FLACU are two I'd watch as they're not as out of hand as many of the others which are now trading near $11. You've realistically had some of these, pre deal close do 5x. So if you want low risk, asymmetric, risk 2-5% and make 3-x00% sounds pretty good to me. RBACU was another. Hung around 10.1-10.3 for a long time after IPO. Traded up to 10.5, then deal talk, $11+. Failed I dont really have an example. I get some IPO at $10 and I also buy in the market. Ive never had one not make money, lowest return would probably be .25% on some of the trade. I guess if you're in at 10.3 and it goes to 10.2 and you find a real investment you take your loss; Ive done that before...but if you arent in a hurry you pretty much always make something.

Oh what a year!

Added some ARKG April puts.

You wont get anything if you are 100% serious about "no loss/no risk". The closest you'll get is trading SPAC units near 10. Been generating 15-20% a year on capital allocated towards that strategy for some time. Doing 5% should be a cake walk. You'll have to accept that if you buy at 10.1-10.2 that you may potentially have 1-2% downside though. Although in my years of doing it, Ive never had that problem. They literally all work out. As long as people value the warrant you are good.

Agree on giving it first to indigenous. People really dont seem to understand how far removed from the general population and societal norms most are. I remember awhile back an issue with a Bible thumper getting murdered by the Sentinelese and how they didnt even want to bother retrieving the body because of the risk of exposing these people(I think 2-3 dozen remain) to normal disease/bacteria.

Personally, after Joe won, I felt that I could trust the science again and therefor get the vaccine. Whew!

Why wouldn't we apply the same scrutiny we do to others, to the government officials who held this up for so long? Its like they're still, with some of these, dicking around and wasting time because "despite 95% efficiency, oh, 1/50,000 might get temporary Bells Palsy or have an allergic reaction", meanwhile, they continue to tell us how dangerous the world is with covid, bc 300k(1/1,000) folks have actually died. The bigger picture of all of this is utterly insane and disgraceful.

I think we can take comfort in the fact that all those people who spent 6 months politicking and spreading fear about the vaccine, cough certain politicians, made it a point to jump the line and get vaccinated....that its probably a good idea for the rest of us.

That sounds like a not awful idea! It's around buyout value now, right? So outcomes are either higher bid, goes through, or walk away - respectively, slight sweetening, same, or big minus? I don't really see why folks would vote no if it's stock for stock. But I guess it's also hard to swallow when cost basis was high. Its stupid attention seeking nonsense. You're currently buying LHSIF at loosely a 10% discount to closing exchange. Theres a share conversion range based on the usual shit and you're getting between .0368 and .043 shares AYR per turd share of Liberty you own. I think this is definitely a bit of a reclamation project and am not entirely sure it vibes with Jon's earlier statements about not taking on anyone else's problems. But Florida is a good market and sometimes you have to bite the bullet. I doubt there is a higher bid out there.

That's wild. Where did you get that information? https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/360574

Its Robinhood week. All the institutional jerk offs start coming back to work in a week. Until then fairies and pixy dust rule the day.

What is interesting is that supposedly the Moderna vaccine was developed within 48 hours of getting the sequence, back in JANUARY! This aligns with the idea that China and others also had a vaccine quite early. So it really is true when people foot the blame on government and regulation/bureaucrats. We had the answer before a single person died of this...yet nothing was done.

Joking aside I do think the $600-$2000 of money going to poor people will actually have a more material/actionable effect on BTC than any etf index.

Just donated. Thanks for bringing this up. A truly worthwhile cause.

NY will get worse, but I dont ever see it being less desirable than Chicago. I've shifted my exposure from the office stuff to residential/retail. Blue collar jobs will still be there, as will tourists.